Coffee and Covid Once Again!

 Again, Jeff Childers, at Coffee and Covid hits it out of the park.  His entire daily blog post is interesting but I wanted to post it because of the third section, where he talks about the Biden economy.  It completely confirms my post from yesterday.

Coffee and Covid: Fiery Lessons

Poor Old Biden again

I've been enjoying a little back and forth with a Team Biden believer today and it prompted me to do a little research. My acquaintance on Facebook was citing a Bloomberg article to prove that Biden has been doing a bang-up job as President and deserves to keep on keeping on. 

Bloomberg Article 

I found some interesting charts at the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics website.  If you are at all interested in this kind of thing, I recommend browsing the graphs here.   https://www.bls.gov/charts/home.htm

and at USAfacts.org https://usafacts.org/state-of-the-union/crime-justice/

All the graphs at which I looked at the BLS site show a dramatic peak or valley, usually beginning in February of 2020 and peaking in April, 2020. Coincidentally, the CDC reports that the worst of the Covid panic peaked in April of 2020. So, it looks to me as if all the graphs are just not reliable from about February of 2020 'til around December of 2021. Big spikes, peaks and drops during that period across the board.

For instance, unemployment leaped from 3.5% in February of 2020 ( the lowest ever in 16 years) to 14.8% in April, 2020. It then began a freefall and was back to "normal" in December of 2021, at 3.9%. During Team Biden, it got as low as the 3.4% again and is now trending back upwards.

President Trumps numbers were steadily falling when the Covid Panic took over and who knows how low he'd have brought the unemployment rate without the pandemic interference? Team Biden hasn't done any better and is, currently, trending worse again.

An interesting trend in the graph is that when Obama took over in 2009, unemployment was on a steady rise and got up to 10% in October, 2009 and then after that began a continuous descent until Covid. In just looking at the unemployment graph, it seems obvious that something about the Obama era began bringing unemployment down. Trumps efforts continued that.  Covid made a brief spike of insanity and then Biden's people are slowly bringing it back up. Looks like Team Biden is slowly undoing the good work of Obama and Trump?

Then, we go to the Consumer Price Index. Once again, Obama and Trump ran pretty evenly
there, both of them doing better than Bush's team had. Obama had a good price drop early in his reign and there was a drop during the Covid Panic as well.  Anyway, after Team Biden takes over, the CPI goes straight to the roof and stays there. Even after the peak subsides, the CPI is still higher under Team Biden than either Obama or Trump and it's again trending up. All the pricing charts show a huge spike under Team Biden, with a decline recently, followed by a current trend upward. The gasoline chart is REALLY bad as is the Food at Home chart.

So, here's how that's being twisted by Team Biden. Their policies cause a massive spike in prices across the board. Then, when They get closer to election, They manage to get those down. Still not down to Obama/Trump levels but better than the huge spikes we have been seeing. So, They can say that They're bringing inflation under control and prices down. Same concept as raising prices in a store by 20% and then having a 10% off sale.

The Bloomberg article also crows about crime rates coming down. In answer to that, I'll just quote directly from USAfacts.org:

"In 2022, the violent crime rate fell for the second consecutive year, down to 380.7 per 100,000 people. The property crime rate increased for the first time since 2001, up 6.7% to 1,954.4 per 100,000 people.

For the first time in two decades, larceny-theft crime rates increased (up 7.4%) in 2022.

In 2022, violent crime rates per 100,000 people decreased across all types of crimes, except for robbery."

Beginning in 2021, the property crime rates took a sharp upward turn as did Robbery. Robbery is classed as a "Violent Crime" in the ratings but goes along with the theft statistics.

So, Team Biden has just been riding the continuous downward slope of most crimes, credit for which needs to go to Law Enforcement officials, not Team Biden. Then when Team Biden took over and the Blue prosecutors began decriminalizing property crimes, property crimes began to rise. Who'd a thunk it?

Overall, the Bloomberg article is simply an election year puff piece with the facts twisted to their liking. Biden rode in on a Trump winning streak, F'd it all up really badly and is now saying that fixing the mess They made Themselves constitutes good governance. Sorry. Not.

Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints

I grew up as a member of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints. Commonly referred to as Mormons. I had very little contact with any other denomination until I was in middle school. I guess I thought the LDS Church was the State Church of Idaho. In my younger world, there really were just Active and Inactive members of THE Church. "Mormons" and "Jack-Mormons".

As I got older and we lived full time in West Yellowstone, the Church was still the center of my social existence but I was also getting more contact with other religions and with people who had no real solid opinion on religion or spirituality. I learned something of other peoples beliefs and how they viewed God, spirituality or the lack of same.

My infatuation with the history and culture of the Mountain Men influenced me to study the beliefs and customs of the American Indians. I had good friends who were atheists, Baptists, Lutherans and many other "protestant" religions. We also had a pretty significant Catholic population in West Yellowstone. In my deliberate contact and investigation of all these (slightly) different sects, I learned of their teachings about Heaven, Hell, the Godhead, Grace, prophecy and the scriptures.

At the same time, I studied the New Testament as well as the restored gospel of the Book of Mormon and the revelations given to men whom I believed had been, were and are current living Prophets of God. I regret to say that I have only a passing familiarity with the Old Testament. In the last few years, I've taken the time to read some of the Koran and try to get a grasp on the Muslim beliefs.

When I came home from the U.S. Air Force and began building a real family, got married and settled down,  I again began looking into religion. I thought a lot about what I had learned over a relatively active and diverse life. I said all this to give some background to my conclusions.

I found that the differences between Catholicism and all the Protestant religions were minor. These religions all seem to believe the same things but have focused on one or two items of doctrine that they find significant enough to pull away from other sects. And I found most of the doctrines taught to be over-complicated and somewhat hard to understand. George Carlin really expressed the overwhelming teachings that I found: "Well, it's a mystery".  

At the same time, the principles of the Gospel that I had learned as a child still seemed to be the most logical, uncomplicated and easy to understand. I compared that to the natural world around me. The world God built for us is, essentially, logical and easy to understand. It's not hard for modern science to explain how nature works. Why then would God make our spirituality and eternal progression any more complicated? He didn't. I logically concluded that the Book of Mormon and the resulting restored Church were true, long before I spiritually learned that it IS true. I no longer travel strictly on faith. I have received spiritual confirmation of the divinity of the Book of Mormon and the truth of the teachings of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints. I'll say it another way. I don't just BELIEVE these things to be true. I KNOW them to be true!

First, let me provide the basics of the teachings of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints (The Church), as enumerated by Joseph Smith in 1842. We call these the Articles of Faith:


"1 We believe in God, the Eternal Father, and in His Son, Jesus Christ, and in the Holy Ghost.

2 We believe that men will be punished for their own sins, and not for Adam’s transgression.

3 We believe that through the Atonement of Christ, all mankind may be saved, by obedience
to the laws and ordinances of the Gospel.

4 We believe that the first principles and ordinances of the Gospel are: first, Faith in the Lord
Jesus Christ; second, Repentance; third, Baptism by immersion for the remission of sins; fourth,
Laying on of hands for the gift of the Holy Ghost.

5 We believe that a man must be called of God, by prophecy and by the laying on of hands by
those who are in authority, to preach the Gospel and administer in the ordinances thereof.

6 We believe in the same organization that existed in the Primitive Church, namely, apostles,
prophets, pastors, teachers, evangelists, and so forth.

7 We believe in the gift of tongues, prophecy, revelation, visions, healing, interpretation of tongues, and so forth.

8 We believe the Bible to be the word of God as far as it is translated correctly; we also believe the
Book of Mormon to be the word of God.

9 We believe all that God has revealed, all that He does now reveal, and we believe that He will yet
reveal many great and important things pertaining to the Kingdom of God.

10 We believe in the literal gathering of Israel and in the restoration of the Ten Tribes; that Zion (the New Jerusalem) will be built upon the American continent; that Christ will reign personally upon the earth; and, that the earth will be renewed and receive its paradisiacal glory.

11 We claim the privilege of worshiping Almighty God according to the dictates of our own
conscience, and allow all men the same privilege, let them worship how, where, or what they may.

12 We believe in being subject to kings, presidents, rulers, and magistrates, in obeying, honoring, and sustaining the law.

13 We believe in being honest, true, chaste, benevolent, virtuous, and in doing good to all men;
indeed, we may say that we follow the admonition of Paul—We believe all things, we hope all things, we have endured many things, and hope to be able to endure all things. If there is anything virtuous, lovely, or of good report or praiseworthy, we seek after these things."

So, in answer to anyone who questions, The Church IS a Christian church. I mean, let's use some common sense here. What is the NAME? The Church of...Jesus Christ...of Latter Day Saints. How much more clear can that be?

So, what Is the Book of Mormon?

"The Book of Mormon contains sacred writings from followers of Jesus. Just like God spoke to Moses and Noah in the Bible, He also spoke to people in the Americas. These men, called prophets, wrote down God’s word. Their writings were eventually gathered into one book by a prophet named Mormon."

"God’s people have always been taught by living prophets. Like us today, the women and men of those times struggled with temptation, searched for wisdom, and led happier lives when they followed the teachings of Jesus Christ. We can recognize ourselves in their stories; inspired and inspiring spiritual records. The Book of Mormon is evidence that God loves all His children and is involved in their lives. It serves as a witness to the truths in the Bible and to the divinity and teachings of Jesus Christ." https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/comeuntochrist/believe/book-of-mormon/what-is-the-book-of-mormon https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/comeuntochrist/believe/book-of-mormon/what-is-the-book-of-mormon

It's not hard to find evidence of the good fruits of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints. Just get to know a few members. Attend a Sacrament Meeting. Talk with a couple of the Missionaries. No commitment is required. You are welcome in the Church.

Read the Book of Mormon. If you are really trying to learn of the truth, there is a simple method. Read the book and pray about it. Here's the pertinent scripture, from the Book of Mormon:

Moroni 10: 4. "And when ye shall receive these things, I would exhort you that ye would ask God, the Eternal Father, in the name of Christ, if these things are not true; and if ye shall ask with a sincere heart, with real intent, having faith in Christ, he will manifest the truth of it unto you, by the power of the Holy Ghost.

5 And by the power of the Holy Ghost ye may know the truth of all things."

I'll tell you now some of the things I know to be true;

God lives. Jesus Christ lives and is the true Son of God. He came to this earth to show and teach us how to live and, most importantly, He came to atone for the sins of all men who will believe in Him and follow His commandments.

The Church of Jesus Christ of Latter Day Saints is the true church of Jesus Christ on the earth today. Christs Church had fallen away and was not present until, through the direction of Jesus Christ, it was restored by the Prophet Joseph Smith and has continued to this day since 1830.

I tell you these things in the sacred name of our Savior, Jesus Christ; amen


Official Church Website

Meet with Missionaries

https://www.churchofjesuschrist.org/comeuntochrist/believe/restoration

Coffee and Covid: Cancer under 50!

This is an excerpt from the daily Coffeeandcovid.com email.  I highly recommend a subscription to coffeeandcovid.  Anyway, here goes...

"On Sunday, I dissected the UK Telegraph’s “epidemic of young cancer” story , explaining exactly how the media twists the cancer narrative and the facts to protect the jabs. Yesterday, the Daily Mail UK ran a similar story headlined, “Alarm over mystery cancer 'epidemic' striking under-50s like Kate Middleton as scientists scramble to find cause of startling increase.” 

To its credit, the Daily Mail almost seemed like a kidnapping victim, desperately trying to smuggle out a secret message: help me! Right from the top of the story, it included this remarkable bit of reporting:

Scientists are scrambling to find the cause of a mystery cancer 'epidemic' which is striking under-50s. Despite years of research, researchers are baffled as to what is behind the problem.

But, in the wake of the Princess of Wales' news, one surgeon claimed a yet-to-be discovered factor could be to blame. Professor Andrew Beggs, a consultant colorectal surgeon and a senior clinical fellow at the University of Birmingham, said: 'There might be an unknown environmental factor that we haven’t discovered, despite extensive research.'

An unknown environmental factor! What could it be?? Does it come in a needle? Obviously the Mail immediately dropped that line of inquiry and lost all interest in speculating what kind of environmental factor might be involved. But they put it out there as a limited hangout.

Maybe the Mail’s handy infographic map could give us a clue. It shows western countries plus Russia and China with the highest rates of under-50 cancer:

Poor Australia! That benighted continent is now the young-cancer epicenter. What could have happened there, out in the desert, so far away from everyone? What common “environmental” factor could possibly tie Australia to Europe and the U.S., which are both drafting right behind the Down Under? Hmm?

Like the Telegraph, the Mail’s article fogged the cancer story with the same batch of distracting nonsense. For example, it named a bunch of early-onset cancer victims, but they were red herrings. For example, the Mail rounded up a small batch of celebrity cancers to demonstrate the trend.

But the Mail’s four sample cancers occurred over a twenty-year period — all before the jabs, and some a quarter-century ago: Black Panther’s Chadwick Boseman (died of colon cancer in 2020, aged 43); Modern Family’s Sophia Vergara (thyroid cancer in 2000, aged 28); A-lister Ewan McGregor (skin cancer —two moles!— removed in 2008), and Australia’s top singer Kylie Minogue (breast cancer back in 2005, aged 36).

A twenty-five year span? Come on. I could round up four celebrities with turbo cancer just over the last four months. And if you give me the last three years, I could easily beat four times that many.

And I won’t even include celebrities who just had a couple moles removed.

Anyway, the Daily Mail also rounded up some cancer doctors, so you can add them to the ones quoted for the Telegraph. For example:

Oncologist Dr Shivan Sivakumar, from the University of Birmingham, said: 'There is an epidemic currently of young people (under 50) getting cancer. Nobody knows the cause, but we are seeing more patients getting abdominal cancers.'

Professor Karol Sikora, a world-renowned oncologist with over 40 years' experience, said experts had 'no idea' what was causing a 'frightening' surge in cases of pancreatic cancer, especially among young women.

UK data shows women in their early 40s, like Kate, are twice as likely (2.1 times), to get cancer than a man of the same age. Cancers of the breast, prostate, lung and bowel make-up the overwhelming majority of all new cancer diagnoses, accounting for around half of the total.

Finally, the article cited the same irrelevant study that popped up in the Telegraph’s article. At least the Mail linked the study. As we noted before, that study shows an increase in young cancer rates over a thirty year period between 1990 and, conveniently, 2019. Misleadingly, the Mail printed not one single word about cancer rates during the last three years, allowing readers to falsely conclude they are looking at just one long, uninterrupted trend.

Baffling! A baffling environmental factor.

Kate Middleton’s tragic cancer story — we must never forget the Royal Family initially insisted it was definitely not cancer — her tragic cancer story has conveniently opened a box of permission for media to talk about the epidemic of turbo cancers in young people. The stories are rolling out now, all following the identical repulsive narrative formula.

It looks like a well-organized, coordinated limited hangout, reprehensibly using Kate Middleton’s cancer diagnosis as a pretext.

The recent ‘cancer epidemic’ stories are so similar it is tempting to think they all came from the same desk. But that would just be kooky conspiracy talk. It is merely a coincidence that all these different media platforms wrote their ‘cancer epidemic’ stories the same way, using the same language of baffling epidemics, citing the same irrelevant study, and exhibiting the same moribund lack of curiosity about the “environmental cause.”

Shut up! Science!"

How I'm Doing...Really

I deliberately haven't been posting stuff like this very often. There's a FB page for guys like me where we can post this kind of thing and not be self conscious about it. But my friends often ask me how I'm doing. I say: "I'm getting by, day by day." Here's the truth.

27 years together. In all that time, there were very few days that we didn't talk.

When I was on the road, for music shows or pool tournaments or whatever, Joann was here, working on the ranch and working at her job in town. When I stayed in West Yellowstone all summer, working at the guest ranch there or doing gigs around the area, Joann was here, taking care of my house, picking the raspberries and taking care of my cats.

At a roundup camp in Nevada, I had to hike over a half mile up a ridge to find phone service so we only talked three or four times a week that month. At the first hunting camp I cooked for, we were there in pickups so when I got into trouble with whatever I was trying to cook, I'd get in my truck and drive the 12 miles to where the phone would work and she'd talk me through my issue. Same kind of thing when I was cooking at Parade Rest Ranch in West Yellowstone. One time, she talked me, step by step, through making a french silk pie.

When I was cooking for a hunting camp a four hour horseback ride into the mountains, there just

wasn't phone contact. So, during the day, when I thought of something I'd like to tell her, I'd write it down. When the outfitter had to go to town for something, I'd give him my notes to Joann. He teased me about his having to deliver my "love letters".

Now, my phone rarely rings. She's not there to talk with. I've always been a loner type. I liked being by myself, camping, hiking, driving...I liked those long trips by myself. But Joann was here. Just a phone call away.

When my transmission quit in Boise, Idaho and I was trying to figure out how to even get home, let alone make all the shows I had lined up, she just said: "You can't cancel that tour" and paid for a new transmission for me.

The other day, I was driving into Helena for something and noticed that my right hand was hanging across the console. But there was no knee to put my hand on. No other hand to hold mine.

It's been 131 days now since she gasped out her last breath, in our bed in my house. The same bed I try to sleep in today. The couch is empty where she used to sit. The passenger side of my car is an echoing silent empty space. So is my life and I don't foresee it being any better any time soon.

For me, life is now a long cold empty frozen trail on which I just have to keep on walking.

I'm going to a cowboy poetry gathering in Rexburg, Idaho next month, about a three hour drive. I'm kind of anxious about being that far away from my "safe space". But, I'm going. I haven't seen my performer friends for over two years now, since she had her stroke, and I want to...but I don't want to. I'll sing songs and perform poetry. I'll be in jam sessions, probably laugh and talk with friends. But, with all those people around me, I'll be alone. I used to call her from these things and she could listen to the jam sessions or I'd pass the phone around and she'd talk with our friends. Now, I'm alone.

Just taking one step at a time, forward across the frozen wasteland. Maybe, if I just keep on going, it'll get a little better. The only thing that keeps my feet moving is the sure certainty that, on the other side, she waits for me in the sunshine and gentle breezes of the mountains where we belong. Maybe we can ride again, her on Poppy and me on Opie. We'll ride side by side, holding hands, like we used to.

"I imagine

There aren't any fences in heaven

It's all just open range

Where cowboys and cowgirls can long trot that young colt

Without having to open a gate

No broken wires to splice

And no overtightend gates to fight

It doesn't matter where the cattle graze

Water holes and creeks never dry up

And good hands can ride all day

Without having to get out of the saddle

I imagine

There aren't any fences in heaven

Nor blizzards, droughts, or hailstorms

No freezing temperatures or skyrocketing heat, no markets to dread or notes to pay

Just blue skies, wildflowers, and a few drizzly days

I imagine

You up there, tending to God's cattle

Riding your favorite horse, Poppy

Enjoying the peace and the beauty

Far beyond what I can dream of

You've reached the promised land, cowgirl

We'll keep the fences

Mended down here"

Prepper Radio Opinion

 

Ok, I want to address the constant admonition to get an Amateur Radio license if you want to use effective radio communications.  I've seen it mentioned on Facebook groups many times and the apparent reasoning is that, if you want longer distance communication via radio, you must use ham radio frequencies.  

First, I will add my voice to the proponents of ham Radio licenses but for slightly different reasons, as Ham Radio did NOT meet my radio communications goals.  The best reason for an Amateur license is to be able to practice and learn about how radios really work.

Here's the thing.  I envisioned being able to use ham radios to communicate with friends and family if the telephone, both cell and landline, system fails, which we all know is likely at some point.  How do I check on my family in other cities and states?  How do I keep in close contact with my local support system?  Even keeping in contact with friends and family in neighboring communities.  How about being able to keep in touch with home when I am off hunting and gathering?  Also, being able to make contact with people in other regions to learn their news and situation.  I figured that I'd have my Ham license and could go to certain frequencies where everyone listened, as with CB channel 19, and could listen in, make contacts if I wanted to and we all would know where to listen.

Those were my basic goals and expectations.  Ham radio, in general, doesn't cut it.  Actually, absent using a repeater or the internet, no radio system does.

So, what do we get with our Amateur License?  

Well, we can use the 2meter band,  144 MHz to 148 MHz, at a maximum of 1500 watts.  That's a very good thing.  There is a frequency on 2m; 146.52Mhz, that is designated as a "call" frequency.  Kind of like CB channel 19.  Most 2m radios transmit at a maximum of 50 watts, some much less.  You can add an amplifier to the system if you want the full 1500 watts.  Using 2m radios, each at 50w, car to car, you can expect probably 20-30 miles, line of sight, no repeater.  This is called "Simplex".  Simplex comms using 2m on a Handie talkie (HT) radio will be between 2 and 5 miles.  The good news is that there is almost always a repeater available, if you know the frequencies and codes for it.  (https://www.repeaterbook.com/repeaters/index.php?state_id=none) Depending on the repeater location and the local terrain, you might be able to get 100 miles or so with your little hand held (HT) 2m radio.  2m, in my opinion, is the most useful Ham Radio band available for SHTF situations and local comms.  For long distance comms, I don't have much more faith in the repeater systems staying up than the cell towers.  Absent available repeaters, you have just simplex distances.

I often travel on US 287, from Townsend, MT to West Yellowstone, MT.  Cell phone signals are good until I cross I90, ok from there to Ennis and unreliable from Ennis to West.  But, I'm within easy reach of a 2m repeater on the entire trip, except for about a mile of canyon along the Madison River.  If I run into trouble; and I have, and the phone doesn't work, I can probably talk with SOMEbody.  I came on an accident in a phone dead zone.  I called out on my radio, got somebody in Salt Lake City who called the local Sheriff for me and sent help.  Without my radio, those folks would have been in a lot more trouble than they were.

Without repeaters, though, 2m is only line of sight...out to maybe 30 miles with a good radio system.

Now, if you don't want to have to pass a knowledge test in order to license, Uncle Sam has just the thing for you.  You can get a "family" license; good for you and your immediate family, for GMRS radio, with a maximum transmit power of 50watts.  No testing required, just bring your checkbook.  I think it's still only $85 for a family license.  Here's a surprise for many of you.  Those hand held radios you bought a Walmart?  The ones in the blister pack that have 22 channels?  If you read the fine print on the packaging, you'll find that you are supposed to get your GMRS license before using them!  You have to use the GMRS channels, which are in the UHF spectrum, 462-468 Mhz.  GMRS does have repeaters but they aren't as prolific as 2m repeaters and you must have your license to use them.  Also, you need radios that CAN be programmed for repeater use and you didn't get that in a blister pack from Amazon.  The range for those blister pack HTs is usually about 2-3 miles, line of sight.  If you are licensed and have 50 watt radios, you can get about the same simplex performance as 2m.

(UPDATE 2-22-24:  As long as you are using the blister pack radios, you should be ok without the GMRS license.  FRS and GMRS frequencies are the same but the transmit power is different.  FRS has a maximum of 2.5 watts while GMRS is 5 watts and up.  Those blister pack radios are transmitting at 2.5W so you are within the FRS guidelines.)

So, what about this "around the world" radio that we keep hearing about?  Ok.  That is in the

High Frequency (HF) radio spectrum, from 3 to 30 Mhz and primarily involves a thing called "propagation".  Propagation is where your radio transmission "bounces" off the ionosphere and returns to earth...somewhere.  What CBers call "skip".  But (and here's the fun part) each group of frequencies has different propagation properties and these groups are divided up into "bands", designated by the length of the actual radio wave.  This is where it all becomes somewhat complicated and part of why there is a knowledge test in order to get a license and my purpose here is not to instruct you in all that.  Get

a book.  Do some study.  Pass the test and get your license.  I'm not trying to be a prima donna here, I just don't want to WRITE that book, since much smarter people already have.

In regards to more local communication, HF radios are similar in performance to a CB.  It's line of sight, except for some limited bands.  I find that HF essentially does NOT meet my goals and expectations, as enumerated earlier.    

 If you get a General license or above, you can use the  (HF) bands and "they" make you think

that will give you worldwide comms.  IF you spend a couple of thousand on a radio and another thousand on an antenna, then get that antenna mounted more than 35 feet in the air, then you will get worldwide contacts...sometimes...or maybe not.  Oh, and one antenna doesn't really work well on all those frequencies.  That's why you spend an exorbitant amount for an antenna, because, with a tuner (sometimes an added expense), one antenna will work well for one band, ok on a couple more and not at all for others.  Get a SECOND antenna and switch between the two! 

Then, what frequency do you call out on?  Just pick one and call, hoping that someone will happen to scroll past that freq at the same time you are calling and hear you.  Out of hundreds of possible frequencies!

Outside of the normal line of sight communication, you can't really target any particular area far away.  For instance, if you have a friend 100 miles away, there is no guarantee that you will be able to talk with them, no matter how much of a system you have.  If the "conditions" aren't right; forget it.  But, at the same time that you are fruitlessly trying to contact your friend 100 miles away, you may be able to talk with someone 2000 miles away.  That's the way propagation works.

Just because you can hear someone, doesn't mean they can hear you.  Usually, yes, but, the ionosphere may be bouncing their signal to you and sending your signal over them or around them or just not TO them.

I will admit that being able to play with these radios and antennas has taught me how to get around some of these limitations.  for instance, I am in Montana.  My friend lives in Helena and I live in Townsend, about 35 miles away.  But there are hills between us.  I can use a repeater on 2m with no problem.  But, if the repeaters aren't working?  How about HF?  Here's where the

learning curve comes in.  Lower frequencies, such as the 75 meter band at 3.8MHZ-4Mhz, with an antenna, mounted LOWER in height than my "worldwide" system, I can probably (note:  PROBABLY) talk with him using what is called "ground wave" or "surface wave", where the signal actually travels close to the ground instead of going out into the ionosphere.  Another aspect of the lower antenna and lower frequency is that it will bounce off the ground and go nearly vertically into the air, coming back down close by..."Near Vertical Incidence Sky Wave".  NVIS really isn't that great for the short distance between Helena and Townsend, though.  It's more likely to work if I want to talk with Bozeman or Missoula.  I don't know anybody in Bozeman or Missoula.

Time of day matters.  Higher frequencies work better in the daytime and then the lower frequencies at night.  10 Meter, one of the best for really long distance comms, works in the daytime and works best in the summer.  But, for local comms, it's line of sight.  Your 1500 watt amplifier (another $1000, at least) will help but will only work well if you are on an antenna tuned for the frequency you are using.  If your antenna isn't tuned properly, the add on tuner will automatically reduce the amount of power going out in order to safeguard the radio and antenna.

Bottom line.  Absent a repeater system, I have found no reliable radio comms for outside line of sight.  It's a "good luck" system at best.  the same applies for trying to get someone with whom to talk.  Once again, good luck to you in finding a frequency that someone else might be listening to.

Now, my own practical scenario.  My girlfriend lived on a ranch, about 14 road miles and

probably ten crow flight miles from my house in Townsend, up on a mountain and the house down in a canyon.  Back in the 70s and 80s, they used CBs up there extensively, between the house and tractors, combines, pickups and so on.  CB comms worked very well for them.  Cell phones still won't work at the main house as it's in a canyon.  They work ok up above the main house, so we can call the landline phone from our cells so the radio comms have been abandoned over the years.  

Joann and I experimented with radio comms for a while.  We tried blister pack GMRS Handhelds but they just couldn't get out of the canyon and give the same reliability that CBs used to.  However, they are a lot easier to carry on horseback than CB walkie talkies and actually provide more clear and reliable signals than CB walkie talkies.  If we were working cows on horseback, we'd carry those and they worked ok.   But, I can talk with the main house CB base or Joann's car radio from my CB base in town.  We can talk car to car almost everywhere on the ranch with CBs and usually we could at least understand each other using car to car from town to the main house.  

Here in the valley, we got good comms for about 10 miles with my CB base to her car.  15+ if we used Single Side Band (SSB).  GMRS hand helds, even using an external antenna at the house, we could only get about 6 miles.  The CB walkie talkies gave us about two or three miles from the house and they really eat batteries.

2m simplex (no repeater) we had good comms car to car almost anywhere we wanted to go, within about 20 miles.  2m handhelds were a little better than the GMRS, mostly because I have better antennas and my HTs are about 8 watts.  Still, 4-6 miles.  In the mountains, a little less.  But for car to car on a trip, my little Baofeng HTs gave us acceptable comms; like when we took two cars to West Yellowstone and Joann's car didn't have a CB.  CBs in the cars would actually have been better, I think, but the HTs worked for us.

Other than close in comms, I can't recommend the "blister pack" FRS/GMRS radios that are sold in sporting good stores or Walmart.  They are ok to keep track of your kids at the park or for hunters to keep in contact, probably, but not for more robust applications.  However, if you are in a situation where you need a handheld radio, at reasonable cost and short distances they are a good way to go.

If you are at all comfortable with programming the Baofeng handhelds (and not overly worried about strict FCC compliance) then they are really the best option for line of sight handheld use, such as on horseback or on foot in the mountains.  Disclaimer: programming and then transmitting on Baofeng or similar radios with frequencies outside their FCC rating is illegal!!!  But, they will work on the same frequencies as those blister pack radios and are a little more powerful, have better antennas available and are reasonably priced.

Long story short...I know.  Too late...an Amateur radio license gives you the option of 2m radios, including 50 watt car radios and 8 watt hand helds, which will give you effective local comms.  2m car radios aren't much more expensive than a CB and installation is the same.  There are inexpensive HTs available for 2m programming.  There is very likely a 2m repeater available that covers your area which will give you even better distance.

If you are looking for the same power and reliability for your family comms, a GMRS license is inexpensive, with no testing involved and the radios are basically the same as 2m radios.  They will legally work with the blister pack hand helds.

If you want to bypass licensing and need radios primarily for local comms , CBs are still a viable and useful option.  Incidentally, the CB radio band, 11meter, is an extremely good propagation band.  Get CBs with SSB capability.  You'll get better performance locally on SSB and you can use them to reach far off stations, just as you would with Ham radio HF frequencies.  In May of 2018, the FCC removed the restrictions on the distance you could talk on CBs.  Since thousands of people have been doing "DX" (distance) "skip" talking since CBs came out, it was about time.  You are still legally limited to 4watts AM and 12watts SSB but that is all you need for local comms and "skip" will still often work.  You'll have better skip or "propagation" on SSB though so spring a few extra $ for a CB radio with SSB capability.  You'll also be able to listen to what's going on around the country by just monitoring those other guys skip conversations.

Basically, for local comms, between family and friends, I still lean towards CBs.  Even good quality SSB CBs with good antennas will be less than $400 per vehicle.  Installation is easy and line of sight with them seems to be clear and with reasonable distance, with the added utility of listening and even talking all over the country and no licensing issues.

A more overall local, family and friends option is still the Ham Radio license and  2m system, both car radios and HTs or, skip the testing and just shell out your fee for a GMRS license.  The more powerful radios are no more expensive than 2m car radios and the HTs are much less expensive, unless you actually go for the more powerful GMRS licensed HTs.  

HF radio is fun, interesting and a great learning tool.  It also is the best way to monitor what's going on in the rest of the world, by simply scrolling through the frequencies and listening in on all the conversations.  That's what you will want to do in a grid-down situation anyway.  Excessive transmitting can lead bad guys right to you.  The HF radio you get will most likely also receive many military and aircraft frequencies so you can listen to those as well.

So, although CB radios very well might be all you and your family/group needs, getting a Ham license and investing in some radios and antennas is definitely worth the effort.  Just don't expect communication miracles.

About Me

I believe in God the Eternal Father and in His Son Jesus Christ and in the Holy Ghost. I believe Jesus was the literal Son of God and came to earth, not only to show us, by example, how to live in this life but, as the only Perfect Man, to redeem us of our sins through His Atonement for them. I believe the United States of America is a blessed nation, choice above all other lands. I believe that the Declaration of Independence and the Constitution of the United States are Divinely inspired documents and that the Founding Fathers of this country were led, by God, through His Son, to create this country, based on those documents. I'm a white, heterosexual male. I'm a veteran of the United States Air Force where I was a Law Enforcement Specialist. I was also in civilian Law Enforcement and I adamantly support our police and their actions under most circumstances. Long ago, I swore to protect and defend the Constitution of the United States and I have never rescinded that oath nor have I ever been released from it. I don't use illegal drugs and don't even drink alcohol any more. I don't carefully watch my diet, I hunt and fish. I eat meat, refined sugar and regular bread. I'm disgusted by the idea of "homosexual relations" and I think transgenderism is stupid. I think that abortions for anything other than the safety of the mothers health is not only wrong but is murder. I don't believe that climate change is caused by actions of puny humans. I believe it is a normal and natural cycle of the earth. I believe that Islamic terrorists are some of the most vile sub-human scum on the earth and should just be eradicated with extreme prejudice. I also think it likely that Islam as a whole is a vile destructive political ideology, not a religion and any effort on our part to cater to Muslims and their "beliefs", in order to not offend them is not only a mistake but could possibly lead to the destruction of modern society throughout the world. I think that illegal immigration damages our country and that many of the criminals and gang-bangers who inflict misery on so many are illegal immigrants. I believe we should deport anyone who has entered this country illegally while we encourage people to legally immigrate here, assimilate into our culture and help us to continue to be the greatest country on the earth. I believe that one of the biggest obstacles to prosperity in this country are oppressive government regulations and that our government, at all levels, should just stay out of our lives as much as possible. I believe that neither major political party has any real interest in the good of America or her people but are completely engrossed in only one thing...re-election. No matter the party or the level of government the jokes about lying politicians are no longer funny because they are too true. These final two paragraphs, I wrote just after President Trump was elected. since then, of course, he was re-elected by a vast majority but the election was stolen, through fraud, theft and treason and a demented old fool was placed in the President's office, illegitimately. Joe Biden was not elected, he was appointed by The Real People in Power which makes my last paragraph nearly prophetic. "Although I originally supported Ted Cruz in the 2016 Presidential primary, I have come around to thinking that President Trump could possibly be our last chance to keep our country what it has been throughout my lifetime. If Congress would keep their promises as well as President Trump has tried to keep his, we might actually recover from the last 20 years of incompetent and even deliberately destructive leadership. It's likely that even President Trump will not be able to overcome the rich attorney establishment and make the changes we need. As long as both major parties are primarily peopled by super rich members of the same "club" that has been running things for far too long, we may have no real chance. Maybe "The Hunger Games" or "The Postman" are our future now."

larrygibson.substack.com
youtube.com/@easygibson

Winter in Montana

 

Montana has numerous hazards.  Camping, fishing, hunting and hiking often is complicated by Grizzly bears, cougars and wolves.  We get incredible windstorms, hard rains and whiteout blizzards.  

But this current weather is, in my opinion, the worst Montana has to offer.  Right now, it's 92 degrees warmer inside my house than it is outside.  People from more southern areas often tease me because my 69-72 degree inside temp is colder than they see outside in their area.  Subzero cold is completely foreign to them and really, beyond their understanding.

Subzero cold is bad enough but the super cold (what I call anything under -20F) is a real issue.   Metal becomes brittle.  Pretty much anything that is on the verge of breaking will break.  Oil in your car freezes and doesn't flow properly, causing engine damage.  If your battery is low, it'll probably be killed by these temps.  Water lines in your house freeze and break.  Windows can crack or break.  If you left an unopened can of pop in your car, you'll find it has exploded and you've got some clean-up to do.

Here's one that even Montanans may not be aware of.  At 45 below, propane can gel, causing your furnace to go out.  So, here it is 45 below zero and your furnace quits working!  I've experienced this in my youth in West Yellowstone.  We kept a light bulb burning inside the cover of our propane tank to keep the regulator warm.  You'd see that all over town, little lights shining in all the back yards.

What would normally be a minor inconvenience can become deadly.  Get your car stuck in the snow?  Better be prepared to stay warm until help gets there.  If you slide off the road, hope you had the good sense to dress as if you were on an arctic excursion when you went out for dinner because if you don't have cold weather gear, that simple slide off can be the end for you.  And there won't be much traffic to find you because most of us like to just stay inside during these periods.

In the Jack London story: "To build a Fire", the character spits his tobacco juice and can hear it crackle as it freezes on the way to the ground.  When I was walking to school one time, in West Yellowstone, MT, I tried that.  I spat and I could hear it snap when it hit the snow.  Icicles formed on my eyelashes.   Nowadays, icicles form on my mustache as well.  

Even with no wind movement, your skin can freeze (frost bite) in just a few minutes.  Windchill, the way the wind makes your skin colder, can change that to a much shorter time.  Bare skin is a bad thing in our world during these "cold snaps".

And those of use who live here just go on with our lives without any real concern.  We're prepared.  Our vehicles have extra blankets, food and other supplies to keep us safe if something happens.  We dress for the weather.  Farmers are out feeding their cows.  It's calving season now, or beginning for some, so they are out all night, making sure the calves are born safely and are kept warm.  Water has to be kept flowing for the livestock.  Livestock seeks shelter in coulees and timbered areas.  We often bring newborn calves in to warming sheds or barns until their mamas get them fed up and warmed inside so they can withstand the outside temps.

We have electric engine heaters installed in all our vehicles to heat the coolant and/or oil when the engine isn't running.  When you find outlets at Montana business parking lots, it's not to charge your EV.  It's to plug in your engine heater.  We let our water trickle in the sink over night.  We have "heat tape" wrapped around our water lines in order to keep them from freezing.  This isn't new to a lot of us but I have to admit it isn't as fun or unimportant as it was when I was younger.  I'm glad I'm retired so I don't have to drive in it.

During the Alaska gold rush, you were a cheechako (tenderfoot) for the first year you were there but those who had lived through one or more winters were called a "Sourdough".  I've always been kind of proud to be a West Yellowstone Sourdough as "West" can be one of the coldest places, not only in Montana but in the entire "lower 48" of the U.S.

This weekend, probably tonight, we should reach the coldest temperature I've experienced here in Townsend, MT.  The forecast is for us to reach -35f as a low temp tonight.  The coldest I've ever personally experienced was -52 in West Yellowstone and that same winter, we never got above zero from late December until late February there.

It's during these periods that I think about becoming what we call a "Snowbird" and buying a winter place in Arizona.  But, there's something about these cold snaps.  The feel and the smell of the super cold air.  That feel of a "lazy wind" (too lazy to go around you so it goes through).   The squeak of the snow under foot.  That feeling as you go from 25 below into a house that's almost 100 degrees warmer.  Just knowing how to live like this, to keep vehicles and people healthy.  To care for animals.  Robert Service caught it in his poem "The Spell of the Yukon".  I just substitute "Montana" for "the Yukon".  Although it would be easier to be living somewhere that snow and weather that even approached freezing, I wouldn't like it.  I'm third generation in West Yellowstone and I always joke that I moved north to a better climate.  I'm a Montana boy and that's the way I will stay.

Joann is gone

 

27 years together.  In all that time, there were very few days that we didn't talk.

At a roundup camp in Nevada, I had to hike over a half mile up a ridge to find phone service so we only talked three or four times a week that month.  At the first hunting camp I cooked for, we were there in pickups so when I got into trouble with whatever I was trying to cook, I'd get in my truck and drive the 12 miles to where the phone would work and she'd talk me through my issue.  Same kind of thing when I was cooking at Parade Rest Ranch in West Yellowstone.  She talked me, step by step, through making a french silk pie.

When I was cooking for Audie, there just wasn't phone contact.  So, during the day, when I thought of something I'd like to tell her, I'd write it down.  When Audie had to go to town for something, I'd give him my notes to Joann.  He teased me about his having to deliver my "love letters".

First, I'd like to call your attention to a couple of things.  When you watch that slide show, in almost every picture, she's shining out her brilliant smile.  She was so happy all the time.  She smiled and it would light up a room.  

Another thing.  Our first dinner date was at Wongs in Helena.  I know that at least three people took the time to walk across the room to say hello to her and talk for a minute.  That was a continuing scene.  In Townsend and Helena I wasn't too surprised when people went out of their way to say hello.  But, Bozeman?  Billings?  Great Falls?  Pretty much anywhere we went.  

The first time I took her out, we went to Helena to "goof around".  She liked just taking a day and not having anything in particular to do.  She wanted to go to antique stores and 2nd hand stores.  I really didn't, but whatever she wanted was ok.  I'd be looking at things that interested me...for myself.  She'd be saying things like: "Tom would really like this."  "Maybe I'll get this for Mom".  Rarely a thought for herself.

We were a great team in any venture.  Working on the ranch, working at cafes, doing the Cowboy Gathering...we just clicked, almost from the beginning.  Joann was the best friend I've ever had and the love of my life.  She saved me from myself more than once.  

She did have a hard time grasping the concept of just being together.  She always kind of wanted interaction.  We should be talking or something.  I was just content to know she was in the room with me.

I remember times when we were riding and we'd ride side by side, holding hands.  How we became so close, when we were really so different, I don't know.  Don't care either.  I'm simply thankful that I had the honor, the pleasure and the blessing of being so close to such a wonderful person.

I know she babysat many of you here tonight.  She was so great with children.  I will always regret our not getting married.  It was my fault as I was so gunshy about marriage after the disaster of my first one.  But Joann should have been blessed with a passel of kids of her own.  Her nieces and nephews always figured prominently in her thoughts.  Those trips to the 2nd hand stores often resulted in toys or clothes for the kids.  

Some of the happiest times we had together was when we took care of the girls of the Six family.  Katherine, especially, as she was the first.  She would spend hours at my house or we'd take her to the park to play.  My house became filled with toys and books for those girls.  Just being around them made Joann so happy.

In my life, I've been around some really talented animal trainers.  I've known people who trained dogs and horses for many things.  I've never seen anyone who was as good with animals as Joann.  They loved her on sight and she could get them to do about anything she wanted.  Her favorite horse, ever, was Poppy.  I never got to meet Pop as she was gone by the time I came into the picture, but Joann talked about her all the time.  She could whistle and call and Poppy would come from acres away.  If Joann needed to do something quickly, she could get on Poppy, bareback and no bridle or halter and move cows or catch the other horses or anything.  

One evening, we were paging through Netflix, looking for something we could watch.  We came across Heartland.  for those who aren't familiar, Heartland is a Canadian series about a horse ranch  where the main girl, Amy, is a "horse whisperer" and people bring their troubled horses for training.  Most episodes have that scenario in them and Joann would tell me, very early in the show, what was wrong with the horse and how Amy could fix it.  Eventually, the scriptwriters would catch up with Joann and Amy'd do it Joann's way.  Heartland became something that we did together.  We never really talked about saving it for when we were together, but that was how we watched it, the first time through.  It kind of became her nightlight the last year or so, pretty much permanently playing on her phone.

We went to Yellowstone together, over seven years ago now!  Where did that time go!?  Anyway, we

got to West about 7PM and I was all for just settling into the motel room but she said that, since we were there, why waste that time?  We went into the park.  Lots of things to see of course and lots to show her.  We got to Old Faithful about 9:30 at night and saw something I've never seen before and having grown up in West Yellowstone, I've been to Old Faithful more times than I can even imagine.  Anyway, the parking lot looked like Wally World in National Lampoon's Vacation.  Completely empty.  We were the only car there.  We walked up to the boardwalk viewing area, all alone.  It was so quiet that we could hear the other thermal features bubbling.  We could hear machinery kick on in the buildings around us.  When Old Faithful went off, in the full moon light, it was the most magical experience!  Another of those countless great memories I have of the times we spent together.

I had a tour of music shows set up.  Idaho, Oregon, Utah and Arizona.  I went to my first one fine but the transmission went out on my pickup on the way to Oregon.  I limped into Boise at 30 MPH.  The transmission place said $2500!  I offered to play pool for it, but he wouldn't.  Anyway, I was thinking I'd cancel the whole tour and limp to St. Anthony, where I have friends and family.  Joann said that I couldn't just cancel and she paid for my new transmission.  That made me the personification of the old joke: "What's a Musician without a girlfriend?  Homeless."

We set up a Cowboy Entertainer Gathering here for 11 years.  It became one of the most popular gatherings for performers.  Everybody wanted to come here and perform.  We had people from all over the country and Canada coming here.  Joann was the real leader of the whole thing.  She had gone to a few shows with me and remembered the good and bad about each and incorporated all the good into ours.  The response from those Cowboy entertainers has been overwhelming in the last few days.  Love  and condolences have come from the Western Music Association, Cowboy Poets of Idaho and the Academy of Western Artists and all those members who knew her.

She started Dialyses in December of '21.  We did Peritoneal dialyses at home, every night.  Then, in February of 22, she couldn't sit up in bed.  I went around and checked her and she had had a stroke.  She spent a month in the hospital in Billings and then a little over two weeks at rehab in Helena.  She came back to my house as it was just easier for all this stuff for her  to be in town.  But, she wanted to go home.  The first week of this month, she was really sick all night and then weak and unable to get around that morning. I called Ed and he helped me get her into the car.  She didn't want to go to this hospital so I took her to St. Petes.  She was there all day and getting more and more in trouble.  They thought she had pneumonia and needed ICU but Helena didn't have room so they wanted to take her to Missoula.  We talked about what the intubation and respirator would mean but she felt that they could fix pneumonia so she was willing to do it.  So, she got an airplane ride to Missoula.  Further testing and examinations showed that she had had a heart attack.  She was over a week in Missoula and they admitted that she really wasn't getting any better or any worse there so she might was well come home.  I brought her back Friday, the 4th.  When I got up last Tuesday, I found her nearly unresponsive.  She was able to tell me no hospital, no ambulance so I started calling the family.  We arranged for Hospice to come to her as we all gathered together.  Her family was all there for her when she quietly slipped away.

I've always been kind of a loner.  Usually most comfortable by myself.  Until I met Joann.  Then, there was one person I wanted with me.  Now, I'm learning the difference between being by myself and being alone.  Can't say I like it much.

Coffee and Covid take on Trump Indictment

 

Excerpt from 8-2-223 Coffee and Covid post: https://www.coffeeandcovid.com/p/indicted-wednesday-august-2-2023?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email

The Hill ran a tiresome story yesterday headlined, “Trump indicted on Jan. 6 charges.” On Tuesday — the day after Devon Archer testified about Joe Biden’s shady connections to a bunch of sketchy oligarchs — special counsel Jack Smith issued a horrible 45-page indictment tacking yet another criminal case onto President Trump’s mounting legal docket.

This newest indictment includes four counts, for mainly two reasons: that President Trump “conspired to defraud the United States,” and that he “conspired to interfere with the certification of the election.” Here’s how the Hill explained it:


“Despite having lost, the Defendant was determined to remain in power. So for more than two months following election day on November 3, 2020, the Defendant spread lies that there had been outcome-determinative fraud in the election and that he had actually won,” the indictment states.

“These claims were false, and the Defendant knew that they were false,” it continues. “But the Defendant repeated and widely disseminated them anyway—to make his knowingly false claims appear legitimate, create an intense national atmosphere of mistrust and anger, and erode public faith in the administration of the election.”

The Hill, quoting bug-eyed reptilian Congressman Adam Schiff, all but admitted that the so-called House January 6th Committee was always intended to produce this singular result: charging Trump with J6-related crimes. The odious Schiff couldn’t wait to take the credit:


Rep. Adam Schiff (D-Calif.) on Tuesday credited the investigation, saying the indictment was “based in large part on evidence we uncovered through our work.”

Although the indictment didn’t explicitly name them or indict them (yet), it claimed Trump worked with six co-conspirators: “The Defendant enlisted co-conspirators to assist him in his criminal efforts to overturn the legitimate results of the 2020 presidential election and retain power.” Based on comments from the indictment, people are guessing the co-conspirators include five of Trump’s attorneys: Rudi Giuliani, Sidney Powell, Jeffrey Clark, Kenneth Cheseboro, and John Eastman, plus an unidentified political consultant.

In a long series of poorly-considered Trump cases, this is one of the dumbest yet.

First, nearly all the conduct described in the four counts is speech, and not just speech, but political speech. Political speech is the most protected kind of speech under the Constitution’s First Amendment. That probably won’t stop the Obama-appointed judge from letting the case survive an inevitable motion to dismiss, but my initial take is the counts can’t survive without rewriting the Constitution.

The situation is slightly more complicated because the DOJ framed the counts as “fraud,” which is a type of speech that isn’t protectable, but that raises its own problems. Even if Trump did lie, which is debatable, lying isn’t illegal, not without something more, like being under oath, or harming someone who relied on the lie.

So the DOJ must first prove Trump lied, and then it must marry the lies to something else that can except them from First Amendment protection.

Which brings us to the DOJ’s next big problem, which is an interesting twist. A central material issue in this shiny new indictment is the truth or falsity of whether significant 2020 election fraud occurred or not. After all, the DOJ is claiming that Trump “lied” about election fraud, thereby — ironically — committing a fraud of his own.

In other words, they’re saying Trump committed fraud by alleging fraud. You can’t make this stuff up.

Now cast your mind back two years. Remember that none of Trump’s 2020 lawsuits ever got a chance to present evidence, since they were all dismissed on technical or procedural grounds. None of them got to take discovery, either.

But this time, now that he and his lawyers are defendants in a criminal case, President Trump can not only put on evidence of election fraud, but he must. And before that, he will have the right to conduct discovery under the demanding federal rules. And they’re not going to like it.

And, while I’m sure the giddy prosecutors are currently planning to just sit back and make Trump’s lawyers prove there was election fraud, the prosecutors will soon confront another unpleasant surprise related to what they must prove.

Right now, the prosecutors think proving their case will be easy and they won’t have to do much. But, as Trump’s lawyers begin to assemble evidence of election fraud — much of which was already pulled together in 2020 (but never considered by a court) — the DOJ prosecutors will start to realize at some point that they can’t just remain silent. They don’t see it yet, but they will eventually have to prove the negative; they will have to prove that election fraud didn’t happen.

They can’t just rely on “everybody knows” there wasn’t voter fraud. They can’t just wave their hands at the dismissed 2020 cases. They’ll almost certainly have to prove the absence of fraud.

And that, they cannot prove. Not only because proving a negative is incredibly difficult, but because it’s already very clear there was significant fraud, as demonstrated by sources like 2,000 mules. Plus, the more they look into whether fraud happened, the more it will hurt the government case.

Finally, of course, bringing this case two and a half years after January 6th during the middle of a presidential election campaign — against a candidate — is a total Banana Republic move. I’m expecting to see Joe Biden pop up wearing a medal-covered jacket covered any day now.